← PTM Regional - Reaper Game Store
Water NicoTier 3
at PTM Regional - Reaper Game Store
decks
1
(1.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-3-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.2%
avg ELO -3.7 per match
expected value
41.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1169
· median 1169
· range 1169–1169
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1016
Q1 1203
Q3 1400
1607
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 10.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +11.0 |
| Water Allies | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Triskit | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Nico decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
